A Look Ahead: 30 NBA Players in 30 Days
We are officially 30 days away from the opening tip for the 76th season of the NBA. We can finally say goodbye to the offseason lulls after the draft, free agency, and summer league (and a certain star’s trade request fiasco) when training camps begin in the next week or so. What better way to prepare for the start of the new season than to go through each team and talk about the one player that will have the biggest impact on their team’s success this year? That is correct, we are going to do 30 players in 30 days! While I do not believe that each of the 30 teams in the league have a chance to hoist up the Larry O’Brien trophy next June, I do believe that it is never a bad idea to continually evaluate players, given how much variance there is every season with frequent player movement and the immense amount of talent entering the league every year.
Here’s how this series of articles will go: I will choose one player from each team that I believe will greatly affect their respective team’s success this year. However, success for every team is defined differently. For the Boston Celtics, success is climbing the mountain top again and to come out of the Finals as champions. For the San Antonio Spurs, success is developing their younger talent while hopefully losing enough games to get the 1st pick in the 2023 Draft to get the next version of the basketball unicorn, Victor Wenbanyama. For most teams, the answer is pretty obvious, but I will try my best in deciphering success for these teams that will most likely be tanking. The order that I will be writing these in are going to be in order from the 15th to 1st seeds in both conferences, starting in the East.
So, Orlando Magic, you’re up first! Let’s talk about an incoming 2nd year player that I’m very excited about, Franz Wagner.
The 8th overall pick in the 2021 Draft had quite a surprising rookie season, and after a couple big moments in this summer’s FIBA EuroBasket, is looking poised to be Paolo Banchero’s running mate (or vice versa?) this season. The Magic acquired the pick to select Wagner in the Nikola Vucevic trade in 2021, when the Magic received two 1st round picks, along with Wendell Carter Jr. Last year, Wagner earned All-Rookie 1st Team honors and finished averaging 15.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.9 APG, 46.8 FG%, 35.4 FG3%, and 86.3 FT%. When watching some film on him before the draft, it was easy to tell that his floor was decently high. He had size at 6’9, he could shoot pretty well, but I was certain he was going to be a project. It seemed like he was even drafted to be just that, a nice prospect to pair with Jalen Suggs, who was seen as an NBA-ready prospect and a future star coming out of Gonzaga. The optics told me he was probably never going to be a franchise star, but had a chance to be a building block for the future. The team’s lottery picks in the last decade have not exactly panned out the way they would have liked, especially since the Magic have found themselves drafting in the lottery in 8 of the last 10 drafts, including the most recent one. With the history of Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, and Mario Hezonja, it was hard to see a bright future for Wagner, but the last 12 months have definitely changed my mind.
To say that Wagner was a fun story last season is an understatement. Out of the times I was able to watch Magic games, I noticed something new about his game that I had no idea he had. He could put the ball on the floor way better than I thought, running some pick and rolls, showing some vision and feel with the ball, and even scoring in isolation with 1.08 PPP. He is already a tremendous player without the ball with his ability to time his weak side cuts well, making it easy for his teammates to get him the ball in great positions to score. He does not have athleticism that jumps off the screen, nor any elite trait that is easily noticeable, and that is probably why it was a little bit difficult for me to anoint him as a future star, but the potential for him to pair very nicely with Banchero is looking very tantalizing.
And that is why I chose Wagner over Banchero for who would have a bigger impact. The current signs are all pointing in the right direction for the German forward. If he takes a leap this year and cements himself as one of the better young talents in the league, the Magic’s timeline to get back in the mix could shorten by quite a margin. As a 1st overall pick, Bachero has expectations as a franchise player and cornerstone, and they started from the moment his name was called in June. If he comes out and he is awesome right away, I do not think a lot of people would be shocked.
What makes this season for Wagner more intriguing is that he had an amazing showing in this summer’s FIBA Eurobasket, especially his game against Lithuania in the group stage and against Giannis and Greece in the Quarter Finals. Against Lithuania and current NBA players Jonas Valanciunas & Domantas Sabonis, Wagner had 32 points, 8 rebounds, and made big plays in the 4th quarter and overtime. What was great to see was that it looked like he was a much more polished version of himself, even just a couple months after his rookie season. It is always encouraging to see a rising young player perform in big games, even if those games are not in the NBA. I would actually argue that this experience playing in FIBA is a huge benefit for his maturation as a basketball player. Against Greece he had a viral moment, hitting a smooth looking stepback three over Giannis and eventually helping Germany knock Greece out of the tournament. By the time you are reading this, Germany either placed 3rd or 4th in the EuroBasket, and either result is impressive considering the top 2 teams are Spain and France.
Wagner’s growth this next season is the most important, as well as the most interesting for the Magic. He is one of the players in this young core and at some point the Magic need to figure out who will be among the most important for them to keep and build around for the long haul. If there was a part of Wagner’s game I would like to see improve greatly, it would be his scoring, considering his volume will most likely go up. Let’s say he goes from 35.4% 3PT to 38% and his PPG goes from 15.2 to 18.5? Those are reasonable marks for him, considering how much more polished he looks, and he could even surpass those estimates. If the scoring ability improves this year, the projection of the Magic could dramatically change. Could Wagner and Banchero be the best forward combo in the league in 4 years? This season from Wagner could give us a really good hint. We could be looking at the best young core in the NBA if the rest of them come along for the ride.
